Laboral Kutxa forecasts that the Basque economy will continue to grow in 2027

The Basque economy will continue to grow over the next two years, although at a more moderate pace and against a more complex international backdrop. This is the main conclusion of Laboral Kutxa’s latest economic forecast report, which anticipates GDP growth of 1.8 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027, ruling out a recessionary scenario but calling for caution given the uncertainty surrounding the European economy.

More moderate, but sustained, growth

Following a 2.3 per cent growth in the Basque economy in 2025, Laboral Kutxa believes that the Basque Country will continue to grow in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace. The organisation attributes this moderation to reduced momentum in the eurozone – particularly in Germany and France – to the rise in inflation driven by energy costs, and to a financial environment that is less favourable than had been anticipated a few months ago.

Following a 2.3 per cent growth in the Basque economy in 2025, Laboral Kutxa believes that the Basque Country will continue to grow in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace.

According to the report, services and the labour market will continue to be the main pillars of the economy, whilst sectors such as manufacturing, the automotive industry and capital goods will continue to be influenced by trends in European demand.

Manufacturing: the main focus of attention

Laboral Kutxa identifies several factors that will need to be monitored closely over the coming months. These include trends in industry, energy costs, interest rates and the behaviour of European demand – variables that will determine the strength of economic growth in 2027.

The financial institution considers that the Basque economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout 2025, but warns that the new context will require greater adaptability on the part of businesses and institutions.

Caution without losing confidence

Despite this more challenging outlook, Laboral Kutxa maintains a moderately optimistic outlook. The report does not envisage a recession as the central scenario and forecasts that economic activity and employment will continue to grow throughout 2026 and 2027, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.

In short, the message is clear: the Basque economy will continue to grow, but the international environment will require extreme caution and a strengthening of competitiveness to tackle a period of greater challenges.

The message is clear: the Basque economy will continue to grow, but the international environment will require extreme caution and a strengthening of competitiveness to tackle a period of greater challenges.